Free Trade

Jamie Whyte provides another blockbuster:

Once you think of a nation as a company, other mistakes follow quite
naturally. You think of international trade as a competition. You think
that we should aim to export more than we import, as if exports were
the country’s revenues and imports its costs. And you make the biggest
mistake of all. You try to plan the economy. You think that the
Government, like managers of a company, should decide how to allocate
the nation’s resources.

This misconception persists not only among academics, for most
of whom socialism is second nature, but even on the political Right. In
a leading article last week,
The Daily Telegraph agreed with
Sir Richard. After lamenting successive governments’ failure to produce
more science graduates, it claimed that “with China and India now
churning out science graduates on an industrial scale, such neglect is
potentially disastrous”.

I wonder if the Telegraph also believes that the
Government should direct more of the nation’s resources into underwear
manufacturing. After all, China is churning out underwear on an
industrial scale. If we are to compete with it and avert a national
disaster the Government must surely see to it that Britain recovers its
underwear competitiveness.

There is no more need to compete with China in the production
of scientists than in the production of underwear or anything else. If
China enjoys a comparative advantage in the production of scientists,
then we should buy our scientists from China. And it can buy its PR
consultants and video directors from us. In a global economy, the
nationality of scientists matters less than ever.

If there were a shortage of British scientists, then their
price — that is, their pay — would increase. Students who seek high
incomes, of which there is never a shortage, would then be inclined to
switch from literature to science. In a free labour market, where
salaries vary with the supply of and demand for labour, skills
shortages are soon eliminated. Sir Richard, the
Telegraph and
the Government can rest easy. Only when the planning urge overcomes our
leaders do we risk persistent shortages or surpluses.

The insistence that "UK PLC" should train more scientists is even more absurd when you think of the justification given for the public funding of such training and research in the first place. That they are in fact a public good, that everyone benefits from the production of new ideas and knowledge, and that the use of such by one person doesn’t stop their use by another.

So why should we care whether that’s being produced in India, China or here? We can still benefit from it.

If we can’t for some reason, then the case for subsidizing research also goes away, for it isn’t then a public good is it?

In

16 responses

  1. The reality is that China is producing a whole slew of unemployable engineers and scientests, but shockingly few good ones. Millions of college graduates cannot find jobs, while millions of skilled industrial jobs go begging. In other words, just as one would expect in an economy too much planned by the government, there is a tremendous imbalance between supply and demand.

  2. I’m not sure how the public is served by this particular mechanical engineer receiving his eductation and training in the UK before buggering off to foreign oilfields to escape a life of paying crippling taxes, but I’d be interested to hear any explanations on offer.

  3. Matthew Avatar
    Matthew

    This is surely just “Jamie Whyte reads Pop Internationalism”

  4. This is surely just “Matthew makes another superficial knee-jerk response”.

  5. Not to mention EU graduates in the sciences – we can blag a lot of these folks too, without needing work permits.
    It would be interesting to look at the actual numbers of graduates in the sciences, and also look at the numbers employed in the economy and the trends etc. I bet the situation isn’t all that bad.

  6. Matthew Avatar
    Matthew

    “If there were a shortage of British scientists, then their price — that is, their pay — would increase. Students who seek high incomes, of which there is never a shortage, would then be inclined to switch from literature to science”
    I’m not entirely sure this is right anyway. An arts graduate can’t just switch to doing physics when he reads in the FT of the high salaries. The potential pool of such graduates diminishes pretty quickly after the age of 16, sometimes even before.
    Britain had an extremely free market in labour in the 1880s to 1920s, but the lack of well-trained science-graduates (of schools and universities) was a continual concern.

  7. “Britain had an extremely free market in labour in the 1880s to 1920s, but the lack of well-trained science-graduates (of schools and universities) was a continual concern.”
    When I last saw a robust comparison made about ten years ago, the annual percentage of science + engineering graduates among all graduates in Britain was virtually the same as the annual percentage in Japan. The big difference was in the split between science and engineering with many more engineering graduates in Japan and fewer science graduates.
    To my personal recollection and inquiries – as well as that of colleagues – engineering faculties in British universities have had much greater difficulty in attracting quality applicants for undergrad courses than university science faculties. Engineering has a poor image among sixth formers in Britain despite much promotion work over the last 25 years. The factor that has emerged over the 1990s is the steep decline in those taking physics at A-Level.

  8. There were no shortage of engineering graduates on my course, at least at the beginning. By the end, there were 80 or so of us, which is not a small number. From what I can gather, there is no shortage of engineering graduates in the UK.
    The problem was few of these actually go into engineering when they left, because the pay and career prospects are so piss-poor. With most non-engineering employers able to offer engineering graduates 50-100% larger starting salary and an impressive pay rise after a few years, it is not surprising that most engineering graduates choose not to continue in the profession. That engineering pay is so poor in the UK suggests either that there are too many engineers or the acceptable standard of engineering in the UK is pretty damned low. It is not difficult to see which one of these is true.

  9. Well, Tim, I’ve spoken with faculty (including top universities) and with colleagues with links to academia. School leavers with stronger science A-levels tend to opt for science courses rather than engineering. To my personal knowledge universities with strong engineering departments and what used to be the Engineering Industries Training Board went out on a major promotion exercise in the early 1980s to improve the image of engineering among school leavers.
    As for “shortage of engineers”, yesterday’s FT identified “computer services” and “construction” as among the main sectoral drivers of economic growth in the period 1992-2004.
    Sadly, it’s getting even more difficult to get links to FT stuff.

  10. “One third of employers have to give their staff remedial lessons in basic English and maths, a survey suggests. Managers said staff needed to be able to use correct spelling and grammar and should be competent in simple mental arithmetic without a calculator. One in five employers said non-graduate recruits of all ages struggled with literacy or numeracy, the Confederation of British Industry poll found.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/5263812.stm
    Not to worry. Employers can recruit bright young employees with the basic skills required from the new EU countries:
    “About 600,000 people have come to the UK from the eight countries which joined the European Union in 2004, says Home Office minister Tony McNulty. . . ”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5273356.stm
    Next problem:
    “A-levels should be phased out and replaced with a ‘British Baccalaureate’ composed of academic and vocational elements, a think-tank has said. The Institute for Public Policy Research said this would greatly increase the number of 16 to 18-year-olds staying on in education. It said one in four in this age group was not in education or training.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4791657.stm?
    Note: that “one in four” in Britain compares with “one in ten” in Germany.
    “The schools minister Jacqui Smith admitted that the number of 16 year olds who stay on in education in the UK is lower than in other countries and asked them to consider studying A-levels or taking an apprenticeship.”
    http://education.guardian.co.uk/gcses/story/0,16086,1555547,00.html
    One predictable consequence:
    “A rise in young people carrying mobile phones and MP3 players is being blamed for street robberies and muggings jumping by 8% last year. The latest crime figures include a 10% rise in gunpoint robberies.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/5195910.stm
    The Blairites call it “modernisation” and “joined-up government”.

  11. As for “shortage of engineers”, yesterday’s FT identified “computer services” and “construction” as among the main sectoral drivers of economic growth in the period 1992-2004.
    If engineers are in such short supply, why is their pay so bloody awful? I don’t believe the demand for decent engineers exists in the UK, which accounts for why so few people go into it these days. I argued this at length with the IMechE in the days when I was a member.

  12. “One third of employers have to give their staff remedial lessons in basic English and maths, a survey suggests. ”
    OK, what was the exact question asked in the survey?

  13. I’m a bit late coming into this but Stephen Pollard is currently running something about it as well. Being in trade myself, it is quite clearly ludicrous to speak of Any Country plc and and it’s axiomatic in trade talks [at least with our minister, that win/win is the first point of discussion and facilitation is the language. The very name of the ministry – foreign economic cooperation – says it all.

  14. Tim Almond: “OK, what was the exact question asked in the survey?”
    I suggest checking back with the original source, the CBI. It’s not just employers who are complaining about the weak competence of school leavers in basic skills. Some universities have been reporting running remedial classes in maths and essay writing for freshers. Besides:
    “An estimated 5.2 million adults have worse literacy than that expected of 11 year olds, while 14.9 million have numeracy skills below this level.” [December 2004]
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4095153.stm

  15. Tim Newman: “If engineers are in such short supply, why is their pay so bloody awful?”
    That’s a good question. For various reasons, this issue was on my personal professional agenda in various manifestations since at least the early 1980s. By and large, I believe in market systems – as well as the potential for market failures – so an orthodox answer was always that the job market will generate the “correct” incentives to abate specific skill shortages given enough time.
    However, even if “construction” has done well as a growth sector in Britain from 1992 onwards (see above), “manufacturing” generally has only limped along and mining has suffered a drastic decline. Rates of return on capital in manufacturing in Britain are persistently well below those in the service industries:
    ONS: Profitability of UK Companies 1st Quarter 2006:
    – Manufacturing companies’ net rate of return was 6.6 per cent.
    – Service companies’ net rate of return was 19.9 per cent.
    Famously if unsurprisingly, manufacturing has lost more than a million jobs since Tony Blair came to power. I suspect that connects with the relatively poor pay for engineers because there is much other evidence of persistent skill shortages in IT and also for a strong demand for graduates in general:
    “More firms report skill shortages: The number of firms reporting IT skills shortages has gone up and the business consequences of the skills gap are worsening, according to the latest quarterly E-Skills UK ICT Inquiry”:
    http://www.computerweekly.com/Articles/2006/08/08/217510/More+firms+report+skills+shortages.htm#ContentContinues
    “Organisations which employ a lot of new graduates expect a continued growth in vacancies this year [2006] – but half are not confident of filling them. The Association of Graduate Recruiters foresees a rise in graduate positions of 15%, compared with 5% last year. But over half of the employers polled said many graduates lacked skills.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/4687030.stm
    “The London jobs market continued to strengthen in July, with latest survey data from the Bank of Scotland London Labour Market Report pointing to a rise in permanent placements and also temporary staff billings over the month. The report’s unique ‘Barometer’ rose to its highest level for twenty-one months in July and signalled a strong rate of labour market growth. However, there were growing reports of skill shortages with candidate availability deteriorating at the sharpest rate for over two years.”
    http://www.hbosplc.com/media/pressreleases/articles/bos/2006-08-14-00.asp?fs=/media/press_releases.asp
    “The number of employers reporting IT skills shortages has gone up and the business consequences of the skills gap are worsening.”
    http://www.personneltoday.com/ArticlesByTopic/172/Skills+shortages.htm
    “Scottish companies are still taking on temporary staff due to a shortage of skilled workers to fill permanent positions, according to a study.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/5268850.stm
    A case that engaged me in the early 1990s related to press reports of the problems that the Japanese electronics companies in South Wales were having in recruiting for apprenticeships in electronic enginnering – being Japanese companies, the motivation and attention to details were absolutely impeccable.
    On inquiry, it turned out that the inhibitor was an insistence on applicants having a minimum of five GCSEs A-C grades including the three sciences as separate subjects. The companies could certainly attract applicants for the going apprenticeships but not applicants who met the GCSE requirement – and that was during the depth of the recession in the early 1990s and its aftermath. As a teacher remarked to me at the time, 16 year-olds with at least five good GSCEs including three sciences would mostly have better personal ambitions than apprenticeships in electronics engineering.

  16. Update from today’s news on the web:
    “Investment banking is the most popular future career for university students, a survey suggests. The publisher GTI found that 20% of the 20,000 undergraduates and recent graduates it interviewed would like to work in this area. Accountancy and professional services, and advertising and marketing were the next most popular choices. The least popular were building and retailing. . .
    “In a study published last month, Hay Group management consultancy found graduate starting salaries for the public sector averaged £21,445 – £1,400 more than the average wage in private companies. The overall average graduate starting salary this year was £20,306, it added. Meanwhile, the Training and Development Agency for Schools found graduates entering teaching were the least likely to be bored at work.”
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/5273726.stm
    However:
    “Too many children are appearing before the courts because teachers and care home workers are afraid to discipline them, the head of the Government’s Youth Justice Board warned yesterday.”
    http://www.yorkshiretoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=55&ArticleID=1711446
    “Academics have challenged ministers’ claims of improved pupil performance in national tests and GCSEs.
    “Government research obtained by The TES compares the results of pupils in England with teenagers in other countries. The findings weaken ministers’ claims that pupils are getting better at English, maths and science. . . The analysis found evidence that pupils who had achieved average results in key stage 3 tests in English, maths and science and GCSEs performed worse in the 2003 tests than those in 2000.”
    Times Educational Supplement 18 August 2006
    http://www.tes.co.uk/2270700

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