The terrible thing is, he’s right, and yet he can’t see why his form of campaigning means that he’ll go on being right like this forever.
So what’s wrong with these programmes? Only that they are a formula
for environmental and humanitarian disaster. In 2004 I warned, on these
pages, that biofuels would set up a competition for food between cars
and people. The people would necessarily lose: those who can afford to
drive are richer than those who are in danger of starvation. It would
also lead to the destruction of rainforests and other important
habitats. I received more abuse than I’ve had for any other column –
except for when I attacked the 9/11 conspiracists. I was told my claims
were ridiculous, laughable, impossible. Well in one respect I was
wrong. I thought these effects wouldn’t materialise for many years.
They are happening already.
Since the beginning of last year, the
price of maize has doubled. The price of wheat has also reached a
10-year high, while global stockpiles of both grains have reached
25-year lows. Already there have been food riots in Mexico and reports
that the poor are feeling the strain all over the world. The US
department of agriculture warns that "if we have a drought or a very
poor harvest, we could see the sort of volatility we saw in the 1970s,
and if it does not happen this year, we are also forecasting lower
stockpiles next year". According to the UN food and agriculture
organisation, the main reason is the demand for ethanol: the alcohol
used for motor fuel, which can be made from maize and wheat.
Yes, bio diesel is a silly idea (ethanol from corn vastly so, from sugar cane possibly sensible)but what do you think is going to happen when you lobby politicians to change the rules? Other people will also lobby politicians, in a process known as rent seeking, to make sure that they benefit from those new rules. It’s just the way the political process works and no one has managed to make it not be so.
Ethanol from corn in the US: well, of course! hasn’t anyone remembered that the first part of the Presidential elections take place in Iowa? A place inhabited mainly by corn farmers? The EU has been held hostage by it’s farmers since its creation: what does anyone bloody well think will happen when the political types start to mandate a specific technology? Yup, right spot on, the recommendations, the regulations, will benefit the farmers.
Now George is correct here, bio diesel isn’t going to be the salvation of the planet (although the afore mentioned ethanol from sugar cane might indeed help) but it really is necessary for people like him to wake up and smell the roses. You can’t go round calling for government targets to be set without accepting that it will be politicians who set them. And they will, unfortunately, act as politicians when doing so. That is, placate the groups with political power, rather than plump for the actual solution to the problem at hand.
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