Does Foreign Aid Work?

Via Andrew Leigh, a fascinating little piece of information:

This paper uses a new database on foreign aid to examine the
relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per
capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and
six four-year periods (1970-93) the policies that have a large effect
on growth are fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. We
construct an index of these three policies, interact it with foreign
aid, and instrument for both aid and aid interacted with policies. We
find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries
with good fiscal, monetary, and trade policies. In the presence of poor
policies, on the other hand, aid has no positive effect on growth. This
result is robust in a variety of specifications that include or exclude
middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat
policies as exogenous or endogenous. We examine the determinants of
policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected
policies – either for good or for ill. We estimate an aid allocation
equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has
been overwhelmed by donors’ pursuit of their own strategic interests.
In a counterfactual we reallocate aid, reducing the role of donor
interests and increasing the importance of policy: such a reallocation
would have a large, positive effect on developing countries’ growth
rates.

Good policies first, the most important thing. Who would have thought it?

3 responses

  1. The Globalisation Institute gave a link to a superb report that did this kind of work.
    It gave the fantastic line – especially if it is channelled through or in any way touches governments – that aid inevitably creates perverse incentives: the government is incentivised to make the country poor if that will increase the aid that is donated (and which they can scam off).
    I’ll drop you a link when I can find it – it’s a monster pdf.

  2. “a fascinating little piece of information”
    And only six years old! There’s been a bit more work done on the subject since then, I think you’ll find. Do try and catch up.

  3. Let me get this straight: aid works in countries that don’t need it and fails in countries that do.

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