Tim Worstall

Dodgy Statistics

Be wary of such numbers:

His worry is that Britain’s reliance on making stuff is declining at a
rapid rate, from 36pc in 1960 to just 14pc last year. And Government
attempts to halt the slide have proved ineffectual.

Does this actually mean that manufacturing is in absolute decline? You would certainly think so from the way that is presented. Without my buggering about for hours tracking down the numbers I can’t say for sure but I have a feeling that manufacturing, while employment is indeed in absolute decline (because productivity has been rising so strongly…this is a good thing), output has been, in inflation adjusted terms, static or growing.

The explanation is thus that services have been growing even faster than manufacturing.

As I say, that’s off the top of my head and I’m not 100% certain of the figures but that is a rather different story than ”the decline of manufacturing”.

In

3 responses

  1. Matthew Avatar
    Matthew

    Its risen by about 10% since 1973. But I think this is irrelevant – in your haste to make the point you wanted to make you failed to read what was written. He says “Britain’s reliance” on manufacturing has fallen. This is true.

    Reply
  2. Neil Craig Avatar
    Neil Craig

    At about 2% growth over 45 years we come out with a total of about 2.5 times (the quick way to calculate compound growth is the Rule of 72 – that 72 percentage points of growth spread over time produces a doubling). On that basis 14% now is equivalent to 36% then.
    The real average rate of growth may be slightly above 2% but clearly we have been close to static. Manufacturing has become a smaller part of almost every economy, even China’s if you don’t count subsistence agriculture but this is still not something for us to be proud of.

    Reply
  3. HJHJ Avatar
    HJHJ

    Industrial output (which was rising at about 2% per year prior to 1997) has been almost completely flat since then – this is the worst performance of any major economy.
    I have no problem with services growth outpacing that of manufacturing, but the fact that manufacturing is almost uniquely exposed to international competition and accounts for most of our exports tells you all you need to know about our competitive position.
    Tim adds: Manufacturing accounts for almost all of our exports? Who are you kidding? Our largest nett export sector is The City.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Discover more from Tim Worstall

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading