Leave Now!

Finally, someone actually saying this in the mainstream press:

There are only nine WTO members with which the EU has
never considered preferential trading arrangements, and of these six
have English as a native tongue or widely spoken second language:
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, America and Hong Kong.
Britain could surely benefit from negotiating free trade agreements
with each of the first five.

Outside the EU
customs union, we could also benefit from importing food on our own
terms, saving the average family of four some £1,500 a year. We could
pursue trade disputes at the WTO in our own right, without having to
wait for a perceived common European interest.

Of
course, leaving the customs union would mean leaving the single market,
too. That would involve losing the right to free movement of goods, and
would have complex consequences for a number of industries. But overall
we ought to be able to negotiate at least as good a deal through an
inter-governmental trade agreement with the EU as we now have through
the supranational single market. And the prize to Britain of recovering
control of its trade policy would surely be glittering indeed.

Patrick Minford has actually crunched those numbers. Even if the EU insisted that we pay the usual customs duties, were subject to the normal quotas imposed on ex-EU trade, the UK would benefit by 2.5% of GDP.

Time to go don’t you think?

9 responses

  1. “Of course, leaving the customs union would mean leaving the single market, too. That would involve losing the right to free movement of goods, and would have complex consequences for a number of industries. ”
    Tim,
    What is the position of EFTA here? Doesn’t Norway have the right of free movement of goods between it and the EU? Presumably it is also able to negotiate for itself within the WTO.
    Or do I have this wrong?
    Also Switzerland and Iceland. How do they work?
    I’m not clear at all that the free trade choice is between within Europe and the rest of the world.
    I thought that was the point of EFTA.
    Tim adds: It is usually assumed that if we left the EU we would be able to get something like the EFTA agreement. However, Minford has taken it a step further and done the calculations without our being able to do so, as if we would face the same trade barriers as the USA.

  2. AntiCitizenOne Avatar
    AntiCitizenOne

    “Time to go don’t you think?”
    It was right to join.

  3. Can you justif that point Anti? I mean how much of our gold has been poured into Brussels since 1973? How many advantageous trading opportunities have we had to forgo in the interests of remaining in step with the continentals?
    If you can detail the benefits we’ve accrued by being members of the eu we could balance them against the negatives and perhaps reach a conclusion.
    RM

  4. dearieme Avatar
    dearieme

    We wuz conned and then we wuz robbed. EU, EU, EU, out, out, out!

  5. AntiCitizenOne Avatar
    AntiCitizenOne

    Sorry, the “never” bit dropped out somehow!
    It should ready “It was never the right time to join”.
    I’m having loads of “fun” with Firefox cut’n’paste at the moment.

  6. Sorry, Anti. One simple typo and I nearly shot you.

  7. Matthew Avatar
    Matthew

    So which think-tank paid for this one?

  8. Matthew,
    I believe that that is what is called an “ad hominem”.
    Perhaps you can offer some rebuttal of the actual argument?
    PG

  9. dsquared Avatar
    dsquared

    [That would involve losing the right to free movement of goods, and would have complex consequences for a number of industries. But overall we ought to be able to negotiate at least as good a deal through an inter-governmental trade agreement with the EU as we now have through the supranational single market.]
    Since we are clearly in the realm of pure fantasy here, why not just say that when we leave the EU we will strike uranium under Merthyr Tydfil and you can get nuclear power into this one too?

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