Productivity Figures

It’s entirely possible to get lost in a minefield of disinformation about productivity figures. Changes in the short term numbers can be horribly hard to figure out. Is productivity growth slowing because we’re heading for a recession? Is strong growth just because we’re coming out of one? Or given that our economy is more service based than most, should we simply accept that we’ll have low growth?

What about public sector v. private? Depending on how you calculate the figures, productivity is actually falling (or not, or rising very slowly using hedonic figures, ie, including the increase in quality of treatment) in the NHS. Most convenient for health ministers that new method of calculation, of course.

There’s also the problem of how productivity is actually calculated: it’s the balancing figure after everything else is taken into account. Even, everyone talks about labour productivity and it’s really multi-factor that we should concern ourselves with.

Then we have all of those studies showing that the French or whoever have higher labour productivity per hour than we do. So therefore there must be something better about the French labour market (ho, ho).

To see what I mean:

"The overall productivity performance has been
disappointing in recent years," said Howard Archer, chief European
economist at Global Insight.

"A number of
factors have been advanced to explain the UK’s overall recent lack of
progress in raising productivity. These include: relatively limited
business investment in recent years, relatively low research and
development expenditure, the recent diversion of resources to the
public sector, infrastructure bottlenecks, and education
inefficiencies.

It’s not a simple thing. However, in the long term it’s supremely important. I think it was Paul Krugman (and I paraphrase) who said "productivity isn’t everything but in the long term it’s almost everything".

The efficiency with which we use resources (the flip side of productivity) is the determinant of our wealth. The determinant.

Still, one line to show up why those numbers from the various French studies do not show their labour market to be more efficient than ours:

"In addition, the high level of employment in the UK means that less productive workers are also able to get jobs."

That’s why France (and many other places) has higher labour productivity per hour worked. Because, in their system 20-25% of the young, 50% of the immigrant young in places, simply don’t have jobs at all, and are thus not included in the figures. In our system just about any and every scrote is employed doing something, reducing the average per hour, but boosting the whole.

It’s simply a mathematical artefact. You can boost the average of pretty much anything if you chop out the lowest 20% before you calculate it.

4 responses

  1. dsquared Avatar
    dsquared

    [ Even, everyone talks about labour productivity and it’s really multi-factor that we should concern ourselves with.]
    Absolutely not. Labour productivity is at least a real number (the amount of stuff divided by the number of people making it). MFP is a complete fudge and statistical construct, wit surprisingly little explanatory power.
    Congratulations on your new post as chief statistician of France btw; I assume that this is how you’re getting access to all these figures about French youth and immigrant unemployment that don’t appear anywhere else. If you really care about these things, France is better than the UK on MFP, and the labour productivity gap is unlikely to be wholly a batting average effect because it is the UK that is the negative outlier, but I would wholeheartedly advise not getting interested. Krugman is *wrong* on this one; in the short run, productivity is nothing and in the long run, it’s a post hoc rationalisation put together by someone who knows how the GDP figures turned out.

  2. dsquared – an interesting/challenging perspective. However, to stoke the issue a little . .
    — relatively low employment rates in France are documented. Try:
    http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/3-10092004-AP/EN/3-10092004-AP-EN.PDF
    http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2005/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2005_MONTH_04/3-12042005-EN-AP.PDF
    The first link is to figures from a labour market survey in 2003 showing the total employment rate for men in France at 69.4% compared with 78.1% in the UK. That is a big difference and reflects a wasteful under-use of France’s workforce.
    — Apparently, it’s not just the under-25s and migrant workers who are under-employed in France, it’s the over-50s as well. Quote:
    “Just 53% of over-50s in France are in employment. This is a low rate compared with other OECD countries whose average is 59%. The gap is particularly wide among less-skilled workers: in 2002, only 51% of unskilled men aged 50 to 64 in France had jobs, compared with 88% in Iceland, 80% in Switzerland and 78% in Japan.”
    http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/1672/France:_Jobs_and_older_workers.html
    — Presumably, some percentage of the over-50s in France actually do work on the side but it’s unofficial and probably part-time and doesn’t register in surveys which provide the basis of official employment stats. A while ago, back in the 1980s and early 1990s, Spain’s official unemployment statistics were regularly reporting unemployment rates of 20% (no joke). Questions were raised as to how this high rate of unemployment didn’t lead to frequent manifestations of social unrest. The unofficial answer was that the official unemployment stats didn’t reflect reality. The unemployed were really doing all sorts of work on the side which didn’t show up in the official figures, especially in Spain’s large tourist industry during the long holiday season. But tourism is also an important industry in France.
    — Calculating micro and macro productivity figures is a recognised minefield – the recent controversy on what has been happening to productivity in the NHS shows that. Measuring output and quality changes in services is hugely problematic and we now have a predominantly services economy. The trouble is that according to the receive professional consenus about (the causes of ) growth theory – namely, neo-classical growth theory derived from Solow – MFP is the predominant source of GDP per capita growth, not additional factor inputs. Hence – we need to worry about what is happening to productivity and how to make it grow faster because – to quote Gordon Brown (who was likely quoting Ed Balls) – productivity is fundamental. If we throw away the concept of productivity, the corollary is that we don’t have any theory of economic growth to replace the received wisdom. Of course, that may be true in a purist, fundie vision of the world but it’s a very uncomfortable position to be in.

  3. dsquared Avatar
    dsquared

    [The trouble is that according to the receive professional consenus about (the causes of ) growth theory – namely, neo-classical growth theory derived from Solow – MFP is the predominant source of GDP per capita growth, not additional factor inputs]
    This is just a fancy way of saying “Solow’s growth theory doesn’t work very well”. Solow’s true genius was that he took his residuals and gave them a name; if I had a brilliant idea of saying that my forecast errors were the most important thing in economics and we needed to spend the next ten years coming up with a theory of them, I’d be out of the labour force myself.

  4. LOL! The late Joan Robinson would have been delighted to hear/read that Solow’s growth theory doesn’t work well (I once had a conversation with her about that) but it’s far from clear (at least to me) that we have anything more robust and illuminating to put in its place – including endogenous growth theory and JR’s growth theory. And that rather leaves economists up a creek without a paddle, so to speak. Of course, there is Barro’s brute empiricism: Determinants of Economic Growth (MIT Press, 1997), which amounts to a lot of correlations and not a lot more.

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