3 responses

1. 

   Rob Read

   January 26, 2006

   The only threat is coerced-collectivism and protectionism making us poor.

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2. 

   Matthew

   January 26, 2006

   What about Latvia?

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3. 

   johnny bonk

   January 26, 2006

   Hmmm, indeed trade is virtuous, however we in the West do have a primacy to lose as poorer countries raise their producitivity towards our levels.
   There comes a time when the chinese won’t be prepared to stand at workbenches all day doing repetitive work that nobody in the West wants, nor will they sell us a week of manufactured output for a day of whatever we sell them.
   Come that time, we shall have to clean our own toilets and toil at our own workbenches (or go without).
   Rising China could be disastrous for many in the West, though a humane visiting alien would point out that there’s been both an increase in overall wealth and a redistribution towards the poorer people.
   A wealthy China/India is certainly in a position to buy more from us, but the stated increase in wealth (productivity) might also mean they are not prepared to do our dirty/dull work for us.
   Personally, I think there has to be a crunch at some point, with a big movement of wealth from the West to the East, then we will have to do our own dirty/dull work .. it will look bad from where we are now, but we will still be better off than the Asians, we just have to do our own dirty work.
   Of course, Africa is not going to approach Western levels of productivily any time soon, so they will still be available to do our dirty work for us. However with a rising India and China we might even find that we cannot buy cheap Africans anymore because they Asians are bidding up the price as they no more wish to clean their own toilets than we do.
   Trade is likely to benefit humankind on average, however we in the West sit at the very top, and consume much more than we make (in labour inputs) … sometime the rest of the world is going to stop toiling for our benefit. That will be when wages (productivity) equalise, its happening quickly and it is a foolish man who can promise that its a win / win situation. Humankind will win, but that improvement in the average human condition may well be witnessed by a reduction of living standards in the West, as we finally have to do our own work.

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