John East sends me this little essay which I’m putting up (with his agreement) as a guest post. John tells me that the science about the Gulf Stream is true but I’m not all that sure about that….from what I’ve seen it’s still considered to be most unlikely in any timescale below many centuries. Leaving that aside, John does point out what we need to do if it is true:
A new strategy to combat global
warming.
At the latitudes of the
UK and
Northern Europe we would expect a climate similar to that
of Alaska or central
Canada. Thanks
entirely to the gulf stream, which bathes our shores with water carrying the
heat equivalent of one million power stations, we currently have a much warmer
climate.
The gulf stream is driven by
chilled, salty water which sinks in the North Atlantic
due to its relatively high density. As this water sinks it sets up a southerly
current, and draws in warmer surface water from the tropics. We thus have a
cycle or conveyor of warm surface water flowing north, and cold deep water
flowing south.
What the latest research is
telling us.
The gulf stream is already
faltering. Rising world temperatures are releasing 50 cubic miles of fresh water
annually from the melting Greenland icecap. Comparable,
new amounts of fresh water from Siberian rivers are also flowing into the
North Atlantic as rising global temperatures increase
rainfall in Northern Russia.
This inflow of relatively low
density surface water is now shutting down the gulf stream conveyor.
Analysis of ice cores from the
Greenland ice sheet has revealed that the gulf stream has periodically shut down
and restarted many times in the past, but what is most alarming is that the shut
downs happen quickly (5-10 years) whereas the start ups take much longer (100+
years). This observation has serious implications when considering what should
be done now.
In the short term there are no
practical measures that we could take to keep the gulf stream flowing. It will
shut down in the near future. Our only salvation lies in the fact that continued
rising world temperatures will offset to some extent the cooling of a gulf
stream shut down.
Recent studies by the UK Met
Office suggest that if we continue on our present course of reducing greenhouse
gas emissions, and successfully meet the targets, then the resulting reduction
in global warming together with the effects of a dead gulf stream will produce
the worst case scenario for the
UK. Near
Arctic weather and growing glaciers would push us towards
a new ice age. If global warming were allowed to continue at its historic pace,
we would still experience significant cooling, but life as we know it could be
maintained.
What can we do
now?
Our current ruling elite have
been happy to accept earlier predictions of global warming, i.e. we all start
growing grapes and enjoying Mediterranean summers in the
UK. To avoid
this arguably pleasant future we have been placed on a generational guilt trip
by our leaders. Some of the consequences included the introduction of energy
taxes and the demonisation of the motor car.
In the light of the latest
evidence it will be necessary to reconsider our global warming
strategy.
In the motoring world, we must
enact legislation to ban low emission eco-friendly buzz boxes, and introduce
lower tax bands for SUV’s. Drivers of existing low emission, high mpg mini-cars
must be socially ostracised and treated with the ridicule they deserve (more so
than at present).
All wind farms must be relocated
to Islington to remind our ruling elite of their folly.
Arthur Scargill must be recruited
to restore the British coal industry to its previous glory.
Will these measures be
sufficient? Maybe not, more drastic steps could be needed to boost the emission
of life saving greenhouse gases. To increase environmental CO2 it may be
necessary to introduce compulsory smoking into the school curriculum, and
identify ways to increase binge drinking. Methane emissions could also be
enhanced by the mixing of all domestic and industrial waste and storing it in
large holes in the ground.
Only the adoption of these new
and radical measures can save the
UK, but will our
leaders have the courage to make the required changes in
policy?.
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